The Democrats Are Not Big Underdogs in Georgia

Mary Singleton
Published Oct 3, 2024


When the song described a "Rainy Night in Georgia," it must have been talking about all the money that has been raining down on the state for the twin runoff elections that will decide control of the Senate. Estimates are that over $500 million will be spent on these elections. Conventional wisdom is that Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock are underdogs in these races given the Democrats' history in Georgia runoff elections. However, conventional wisdom may be wrong here as the two Democrats have a fighting chance of giving Senate control to the Democrats.

With Trump MIA, Warnock and Ossoff Have a Real Chance


It cannot be stressed enough what the impact of Trump is on a race. As terrible of a human being that he is, Trump has proven that he has a hold on his voters that cannot be shaken. He whips them up into a frenzy and brings them to the polls. However, Trump seems to have only passing interest in this race so far. As much as Kelly Loeffler has fallen all over herself to ingratiate herself to Trump, he is barely returning the affection beyond a perfunctory tweet. The fact is that Trump simply does not care what happens to the Senate with him out of the picture.

In fact, if Trump's true intention is to run again in 2024, he may want the Democrats to control both houses of Congress. Assuming that he stays out of prison, Trump has delusions of winning back the White House in 2024. He really couldn't care less about the success of the Republicans as long as it has nothing to do with him not being in the White House.

The Republicans are sending every other 2024 wannabe down to the state to try to excite the rabid base. However, Ted Cruz, even with the beard, does nothing to excite the voters that Loeffler and Perdue need. Moreover, without continuous Trump rallies in the state, his voters will fast become dispirited and disengaged. While that is an appealing outcome for humanity, it is toxic for the GOP. Trump has telegraphed that the American public will barely see him between now and the time that he is dragged out of the White House by the Secret Service. If there was ever a time when he would trot out his public poison, it would be now. Trump will likely not make his way down to Georgia to campaign for the Senate races because he simply does not care about anything not in his self-interest.

Without Trump on the ballot or down in the state in person, Republican candidates suffer. Democrats could expect these elections to be more like 2018 than 2020 since Trump's name is not at the top of the ticket. In an election that will be decided by a couple of points or less, this could make the difference.

Harris and Maybe Biden Will Be Down in Georgia Spending Political Capital


At the same time, Democrats are motivated to take back the Senate and give Joe Biden some room to maneuver as president. Democrats can hope that at least Kamala Harris will be down in the state before the January 6 vote. Her presence will fire up Democrats way more than the milquetoast Mike Pence could excite Republicans. In fact, Pence may be humanly incapable of exciting anyone. If Biden invests significant political capital of his own in this campaign, it could make the difference.

Moreover, Stacey Abrams is far from done in her efforts to turn Georgia blue. Having flipped the state at the presidential level, Democrats will be energized and united. At the same time, there is a Republican civil war brewing as most of the party seems to have turned on Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger while Governor Brian Kemp seems to try to blend into the curtains at the governor's mansion to avoid having to say a word.

All we are saying is that the pundits should not simply assume that the Republicans are favored here. They have returned to their same tired playbook where they trot out Schumer at every turn, but the dynamics of the election are working against them. Without Trump to lather his base into a frenzy, Perdue and Loeffler are in real trouble as they are sucking up to a president who seems intent on nursing his own grievances until the end of his presidency.

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