Democratic donors have given gobs of money during this Senate cycle. In fact, Act Blue has raised over $1.5 billion from small donors just in the third quarter alone. While donors have done heroic work during this cycle, they need to be narrowing their focus the last few weeks before the election. The top-tier races that were viewed as the Democrats best chances for pickups seem to have fallen into our column. Now, donors need to look to the seats that could help a President Biden govern and pass his agenda. This means that donors should be raining money in particular down on seats such as Kansas and Alaska.

President Biden Would Need to Get Stuff Done

The first order of business in a Biden Administration would be passing a large stimulus package to help the economy recover from the effects of COVID-19. Mitch McConnell is already laying the groundwork for suddenly finding fiscal discipline in opposing the bill. Despite ramming through tax cuts for the rich that busted the budget, McConnell will now go back to claiming that he is a fiscal conservative. This is why the Democrats need to have the votes in the Senate.

The most obvious way to get a fiscal stimulus passed is through a process called reconciliation. This process can be used once a year for budget bills, and it allows the requirement for 60 votes to be waived. The Democrats would likely first try to use reconciliation to pass the stimulus bill. They would also try to stick into the bill a fix that would moot the Obamacare lawsuit in front of the Supreme Court.

While 50 may seem like a magic number for Democrats, it is not certain that it would be enough to ensure the passage of legislation. It is almost a virtual certainty that McConnell's obstructionism will force the Democrats to go nuclear and get rid of the filibuster at some point. The Democrats cannot count on the support of senators such as Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. This is why 52 is the magic number for the Democrats. 53 or 54 would be even nicer and would give the party a little more breathing room for the inevitable rule change vote to nuke the filibuster.

This is where the races in Kansas and Alaska come into play. While we were touting Al Gross' chances months ago, the national party seems to have caught on to the fact that he can actually win his race. The circumstances in Alaska are actually very ripe for an upset. The voters in the state are already disgusted with their Republican governor, and there are scandals with other state leaders. Alaska is a cheap media market, and Gross already has a wide financial advantage. A fresh infusion of $5 million or more in the final days of the race may be enough to finish off Dan Sullivan, who never seems to take his race seriously until it was too late.

Barbara Bollier Is in a Winnable Race in Kansas

The same is true for Kansas. The state has had its own experience with far-right policies that left its finances in shambles. Until Sam Brownback, the state had a history of moderate Republicanism, exactly the philosophies that seem to be at direct odds with Trump's far-right lunacy. There are enough suburban and college-educated voters in the state to help flip a Senate seat. Barbara Bollier has outraised Roger Marshall by several multiples. The polls seem to give her a 50-50 chance of prevailing in what would be an unthinkable win. Kansas is also a cheaper media market that can be saturated in the days before the election.

Democrats need to be strategic about where they invest their money in the closing days of the race. While they are not guaranteed victory in Arizona, Maine and Colorado, these races seem like they are drawing to a close. Now, Joe Biden needs numbers in the Senate to help bring America back from the devastation of COVID-19. Republican candidates in some non-marquee races are on the ropes, and a financial infusion can lead to a knockout. If the Democrats can pick up six Senate seats in the election, Biden should be able to govern effectively. Then, all of McConnell's ranting and raving will carry exactly no weight and meaning, and he can be comfortably ignored except for an occasional pat on the head.