Democrats everywhere are freaking out about the presidential election. It is only natural after Hillary Clinton blew a race against an inferior opponent back in 2016. It makes perfect sense that Democrats would never trust a poll again after the last election. However, there are a set of polls flying under the radar that spell great news for the Democrats. While everyone is focused on the battleground states and their polls, it is the numbers from the Trump states that should give the man who claims to be President some real cause for concern. These numbers indicate that a Biden blowout may be on the way.

Many people have never heard of a pollster called the Tyson Group. They receive a B/C rating from Real Clear Politics, and their polls have not registered any bias. The Tyson Group recently polled across the Southeast and the Sun Belt. The results of these polls should have Trump scared stiff. Not only did Tyson look at the presidential race, but they also polled some southern Senate races.

Biden Is Only Four Points Down in Alabama

The number that the media missed that absolutely leaped off the page was the poll of the presidential race in Alabama. Here, Trump led Biden 48-44 in the Trumpiest of states. We are not suggesting that Biden has a strong chance of winning Alabama, but polls like these suggest that Trump's base may be cracking. Another Tyson Group poll should evoke similar terror. Tyson Group polled the Mississippi Senate race. The result was absolutely shocking. It showed Mike Espy only a point behind Cindy Hyde-Smith in a race that he lost by seven points in 2018.

Many would chalk these polls up as outliers and immediately dismiss these surveys. However, they are not the only polls that show that Trump may not even be sweeping the South anymore. There was a shock poll in Arkansas this summer that showed Biden only two points behind Trump in Arkansas. This poll was also largely ignored. However, there are enough of these polls that can add up to some definite smoke. They are also consistent with surveys in Missouri that show that Trump leads by single digits. This is a state that he won by 20 points in 2016.

This Could Be an Election Night Canary in the Coal Mine

These Red states are important for many reasons. Even if Biden will not compete there, and he should not, they will give an important data point on election. There would no conceivable way that Trump can make a claim to have won reelection if he is barely squeaking by in Alabama. If he is close in his best states, results from the Blue Wall will be overwhelmingly positive when they come in after election day. In fact, the closeness of Alabama when votes begin to be counted will show that Trump really is in trouble.

There are good reasons to believe that there may be something to these polls. They may even be undercounting support for the Democrats. Surveys in Mississippi usually undercount the Black vote because participation is lower in other years. Black voters make up 40% of the electorate in Mississippi, but they end up as only 25-30% of the voters. If there is a heavy Black turnout in the South, there is reason to believe that Espy can win and that Trump will barely squeak by in his base states.

Biden is running at least six points ahead of Hillary Clinton's performance in nearly every Red state poll that has been taken. If this overperformance is applied nationally, Biden is heading for the largest victory since Obama in 2008. These polls show that Trump is not only not growing his base, but is bleeding white voters.

Nobody is saying that Biden should expand the map to fight across the South. However, his campaign should be watching these polls closely and using them as impetus to expand the map. It will not only help him, but it will also aid Democrats in Senate and downballot races. Those who worry about some mystical Trump powers that will seize the election at the last minute are overlooking the fact that his slippage in support is truly national. Pay close attention to any more polls in Trump states between now and the election. If they show the same as these surveys, he is in deep trouble.