Political observers have been amazed at how nothing seems to move the needle during the 2020 campaign. Most voters seem locked into their preferences between Trump and Biden and have varied them little. This has been perhaps the most stable presidential polling of all time in spite of the unstable situation in the country. However, the first presidential debate can be one of those inflection points that may move the needle. For Joe Biden, a strong showing can put Trump away once and for all.

The first presidential debate has a reputation for being the most consequential part of any electoral campaign. After the candidates' scripted conventions, it is a chance for the voters to get an unscripted look at the candidates. For example, in 2000, Al Gore's sighs and eye rolls defined him for the rest of the election. Trump's ability to remain on the same stage as Hillary Clinton and her failure to deliver a knockout blow set the stage for his comeback. Biden can make a similar impact in a positive way on September 29.

Biden's Points Will Hit Home When Standing Six Feet or More Away from Trump

For some reason, the first debate has all the trappings of a major prizefight where the candidates' every word and gesture is overly scrutinized by a breathless public. These days, given the polarized public, there are few ways for the candidate to break out or drop on their own merits. In the public's eyes, a candidate needs to have their moment in direct relation to the other candidate. In other words, they can only win when the other candidate is a clear loser on the other side.

This debate is even more heavily anticipated than any past debate. Trump has set the bar so low for Biden with his incessant attacks about Biden's mental fitness for the presidency that Biden can not only clear the bar, but he can leap over it. However, this is an opportunity that Biden must now seize. It will be the last time that he has to deliver the knockout blow to Trump before early voting begins in earnest. By the time that November 3 rolls around, three-quarters of the votes may already have been cast. Chances are that a large proportion of voters will cast their ballots between the first and second presidential debates.

Biden Is Preparing for the Debates While Trump Blusters

While Trump belittles Biden for "staying in his basement," you can rest assured that Joe Biden will be well-prepared for this debate. The Biden of 2012 actually resuscitated the Obama reelection campaign after his boss put in a rare stinker at his first debate with Mitt Romney. While Biden is not necessarily the best debater, he does much better in a one-on-one format. You can just ask Paul Ryan about that. You can even ask Bernie Sanders who Biden ably debated in March during this campaign.

Biden will be prepared for Trump attacks and defections because Trump has not varied his attack lines much during this campaign. Like an aging singer in need of new material, he has the same standby material at his ready. Biden should be ready for it. So long as he can execute his own plan of attack, he will be fine. Biden does not need to have a single knockout moment to use the debate to put Trump away. Thanks to Trump, all he has to do is handle Trump's lunacy, and he will sway some minds.

Due to dynamics of the campaign, all it will take is persuading 2% of the electorate to make a meaningful difference in the poll. If Biden can do this at the first debate, this election should move from a clear Biden win to a landslide.

Of course, Trump is playing exactly into Biden's hands when it comes to his debate preparation. Considering himself the greatest debater of all time, Trump has entirely skipped debate prep. Since not reading his briefing books works out so well for him, he is going with the same approach for the debate. The bad news for Trump and great news for Democrats is that Chris Wallace is the moderator of the first debate. This is the same journalist who laid Trump bare in front of a national television audience this summer. If any moderator will not Trump get away with being Trump, it will be Wallace.