One of the biggest parlor games across the country without a full slate of sports to watch is guessing who Joe Biden will choose to be his running mate. Every day brings a new story, and it is difficult to tell if the pieces are the writers own conjecture or a timed trial balloon from the Biden Campaign. In any event, Biden appears set to name his running mate by the end of July. With Biden's lead in the polls, he can afford to play it safe and not take unnecessary chances on a potentially risky choice.

Do No Harm with the Lead in the Polls

The rule of thumb with vice presidential choices is that a candidate with a solid lead should do no harm with their selection. Three of the riskiest vice presidential choices in our lifetime were made by candidates who trailed in the polls and felt that they needed to shake things up and make a splash. Of course, we all remember the most recent running mate search that reeked of desperation. For a hint of who, remember that she can still see Russia from her front porch. People may have forgotten the selection of Dan Quayle. At the time, George H.W. Bush trailed in the polls. Nonetheless, the choices of Quayle and Geraldine Ferraro arguably proved to be mini-disasters.

With recent polls showing Biden up by double digits, he does not need to shake up the race with his VP pick. People will point to the fact that Hillary Clinton thought the same thing and eventually landed on Tim Kaine as her running mate choice. Kaine ultimately did nothing to demonstrably help Clinton as he proved to be a bland and unremarkable candidate. They will also point to the fact that Biden should be acting as if he is a few points behind given the extreme danger to the country that a Trump victory would pose.

The Stakes Are High in This Election

Nonetheless, Biden needs to be mindful of the fact that a landslide in this election will deliver control of the Senate and numerous state legislatures to the Democrats. Thus, he cannot afford to take chances that will cut into his lead if his intuition proves to be incorrect. The right running mate choice combined with a continuation of the understated and sound campaign that Biden has been running can deliver lasting results to the Democrats for decades.

One factor that is working in Biden's favor is that fact that he was one arguably of the most effective vice presidents in this country's history. The public will have the perception that Biden knows how to make the proper selection since he ably served President Obama for eight years. This may embolden him to choose someone lesser known since he feels that he has built up the credibility with the American public. However, Biden should act like the underdog but run like the favorite when it comes to his running mate search.

One thing that Biden needs to be particularly concerned about is being overshadowed and outshined by his running mate. If Biden chooses an untraditional pick who turns out to be a superstar, it could make him look ordinary by comparison. Joe Biden is very much a known quantity with five decades in public service. We know him to be an empathetic man who may not be the most inspiring speaker. Part of his appeal is that voters know that they are getting stability and experience, even if he cannot give a speech like Obama. Being overshadowed by his running mate could make him vulnerable to comparisons.

Two Presidents for the Price of One

Even though some commentators are saying that Biden's VP pick does not matter with the large polling lead that he has, people need to remember the stakes. With Biden's advanced age, there is little chance that he runs for a second term. His choice will start as the likely frontrunner for 2024, so he needs to remain conscious of the future of the Democratic party. Unless Biden punts and chooses someone without presidential ambitions of their own, voters will be looking at a vote for Biden as one for possibly two presidents. Acordingly, gravitas and stability should be main focuses for Biden, and he should remain inside of the box when picking his partner for the next four years.