Much of the attention for the 2020 election has been focused on the likely drubbing that Joe Biden is getting set to adminsiter to Donald Trump. Of course, it is important to get out the vote on the presidential level. There is one effect of the coming election that people are not talking about, namely the effect on the downballot races. Beyond the House and Senate races, control of state legislatures is up for grabs in the coming election. With this control comes the power to draw Congressional boundary maps after the census is completed.

Many people forget the reason why the Republicans ended up with nearly a decade of dominance over the House. In the wake of the controversy over the Affordable Care Act, the Democrats experienced what President Obama called a drubbing. The election wipeout was comprehensive and cost Democrats control over numerous state legislatures. As a result, GOP-controlled state governments went to work drawing Congressional Districts in a lopsided way. The GOP was so effective in gerrymandering that the Democrats only eked out a small majority in the 2018 midterm elections when they won the national popular vote by 8%.

Control of State Government Means the Power to Draw Congressional Maps

Even though some state Supreme Courts have stepped in and struck down their congressional maps as being overly gerrymandered, many states still have grotesquely distorted maps. The U.S. Supreme Court was given a chance to weigh in on the matter but endorsed political gerrymandering. Perhaps had they been aware of the coming Blue Wave, they may have been a little more cautious. Nonetheless, the conservative Supreme Court gave states pretty much a blank check to continue their heavily gerrymandered Congressional districting. Now, the Republicans are about to find out what it is like to be on the other side of this coin.

Democrats have been pulling surprise victories on the state level in places where they have usually never been competitive. This gives hope that the party may be successful in flipping some state legislatures. At the very minimum, the hope is that the Democrats can cut into the legislative majorities in some states where they control the state house but not the legislature.

Really, the Democrats need to regain control of one branch of the legislature in a state in order to have a say in the redistricting. After the 2010 election, Republicans had seized the governor's mansions in Michigan, Illinois and Pennsylvania. Although the Keystone State has since taken steps to eliminate partisan redistricting, there are other state where Democrats will either control the process or have a significant say in it.

The Texas House Is Firmly In Play

One of the major prizes on the state level that seems to be in reach for the Democrats is the state legislature in Texas. The House in the state is now very much in play for the Democrats. In 2018, the Democrats cut the Repubicans' edge in the state to nine seats. Now, as COVID-19 rages out control thanks to a clueless governor who takes his cues from Trump, flipping those nine seats and even more is squarely within reach. With the number of districts that Texas stands to gain after the next census, control of the House will give the Democrats a seat at the redistricting table. Even without full control of Texas, Democrats can block an egregious attempt at partisan redistricting.

There are numerous other states where the Democrats are poised to flip state houses. Democrats already control the redistricting in many of the most populous states in the country. Combined with the growing alientation of suburban voters by the GOP, the Democrats seem poised to build a durable majority in the House that may last for many years.

Thus, it is critical for Democratic voters to take the local races every bit as seriously as they are the national ones. While the reelection of Donald Trump would spell near-death for the American republic, voters must remember what is at stake in the local races too and open their checkbooks and knock on door for legislative candidates. Given how undemocratic the American democracy is, control of large parts of the national agenda for the next decade is at stake. In a way, Donald Trump's meltdown is very conveniently timed to improve Democratic prospects for an entire generation given everything that is at stake in the coming election.