Don't Sleep on Alaska as a Democratic Pickup Opportunity
Bryan Miller
Published Aug 7, 2024
As control of the Senate appears increasingly more likely to fall into Democratic hands, the question is now becoming how many seats Team Blue will capture. One race that many people are sleeping on is the Senate race out in Alaska. Pundits have this race in the ""Solid R"" category. This assessment fails to take into account a volatile electorate in the state that is in flux right now. The presence of Independent candidate Al Gross gives the Democrats a fighting chance at this seat as they seek to pad their Senate majority. Gross will caucus with the Democrats if elected.
Alaska has a tradition of independence when it comes to local races. While many people think of the state's voters as a red monolith because they always support the GOP at the presidential level, the voters in the state are more evenly split than thought. Alaskans value a candidate with an independent streak and do not seem attached to party labels in down ballot races.
An example of this is the fact that Lisa Murkowski won reelection as a write-in candidate in 2016 after losing her primary race to a Tea Party-backed candidate. Her family's brand in the state turned out to be more important than the party label as she was able to weather a primary loss. If there is any rule of thumb about Alaska voters, it is that they are unpredictable.
Moreover, voters in Alaska are just plain angry with the performance of Governor Mike Dunleavy. There is an effort underway to recall the Republican executive because he took a Trumpian populist approach to gut state services. This has activated the large Alaska Native population and sparked a widespread furor in the state where many residents depend heavily on government.
The fact is that Dan Sullivan is a largely anonymous incumbent who has clung very closely to Trump in a year where Alaska is beginning to trend Purple. Sullivan barely won election in 2014, which was a wave year for the Republicans. He defeated an incumbent Democrat by one point when the Republicans swept control of both houses of Congress. Thus, many are overlooking the fact that Sullivan barely won in a wave year.
Gross is a much stronger candidate than people realize. His fundraising has already picked up dramatically, and he outraised Sullivan in the first quarter. Even taking out Gross' own contributions to his campaign, Gross' fundraising has been strong and national. There is little question that he will have the ability to saturate the airwaves in a less expensive media market.
Gross' centrism should also put him in good standing with Alaska voters. While he is centrist, he has positions on healthcare that are popular with Alaska voters. His background as a doctor should help him be an effective voice for Alaska voters at a time when health issues are paramount in their minds.
Alaska is an under polled state so many just make assumptions and end up surprised at the actual election results. In fact, there was a crowdfunding effort on Twitter to pay for a poll of Alaska since none had been performed on the race to date. The results were encouraging for Gross supporters. Sullivan was leading in the poll by a 39-34 margin. While Sullivan is putatively ahead, the fact that he is not polling above 39% as an incumbent is a troubling sign. After six years in office, an incumbent polling under 50% is not in the best of shape. It means that they cannot garner widespread support from voters. Undecided voters are usually more likely to break for the challenger, especially when there is a wave election.
In addition to the anger with Dunleavy, there are also numerous other factors in Alaska that can drag down Sullivan. Congressman Don Young has been in his seat for decades and seemingly angers more constituents each year with his intemperate mouth. Even Trump's popularity has fallen below 50% in Alaska. This election in the state has all of the makings of a perfect storm. Political aficionados should not be surprised as the experts who rate races begin to look more closely at this race that is flying under the radar. There may not be another poll between now and the election, but Al Gross is very much in the thick of things.
Alaska Has a Long History of Surprising Political Observers
Alaska has a tradition of independence when it comes to local races. While many people think of the state's voters as a red monolith because they always support the GOP at the presidential level, the voters in the state are more evenly split than thought. Alaskans value a candidate with an independent streak and do not seem attached to party labels in down ballot races.
An example of this is the fact that Lisa Murkowski won reelection as a write-in candidate in 2016 after losing her primary race to a Tea Party-backed candidate. Her family's brand in the state turned out to be more important than the party label as she was able to weather a primary loss. If there is any rule of thumb about Alaska voters, it is that they are unpredictable.
Moreover, voters in Alaska are just plain angry with the performance of Governor Mike Dunleavy. There is an effort underway to recall the Republican executive because he took a Trumpian populist approach to gut state services. This has activated the large Alaska Native population and sparked a widespread furor in the state where many residents depend heavily on government.
The fact is that Dan Sullivan is a largely anonymous incumbent who has clung very closely to Trump in a year where Alaska is beginning to trend Purple. Sullivan barely won election in 2014, which was a wave year for the Republicans. He defeated an incumbent Democrat by one point when the Republicans swept control of both houses of Congress. Thus, many are overlooking the fact that Sullivan barely won in a wave year.
Gross is a much stronger candidate than people realize. His fundraising has already picked up dramatically, and he outraised Sullivan in the first quarter. Even taking out Gross' own contributions to his campaign, Gross' fundraising has been strong and national. There is little question that he will have the ability to saturate the airwaves in a less expensive media market.
Gross Is the Right Candidate to Match the Moment in Alaska
Gross' centrism should also put him in good standing with Alaska voters. While he is centrist, he has positions on healthcare that are popular with Alaska voters. His background as a doctor should help him be an effective voice for Alaska voters at a time when health issues are paramount in their minds.
Alaska is an under polled state so many just make assumptions and end up surprised at the actual election results. In fact, there was a crowdfunding effort on Twitter to pay for a poll of Alaska since none had been performed on the race to date. The results were encouraging for Gross supporters. Sullivan was leading in the poll by a 39-34 margin. While Sullivan is putatively ahead, the fact that he is not polling above 39% as an incumbent is a troubling sign. After six years in office, an incumbent polling under 50% is not in the best of shape. It means that they cannot garner widespread support from voters. Undecided voters are usually more likely to break for the challenger, especially when there is a wave election.
In addition to the anger with Dunleavy, there are also numerous other factors in Alaska that can drag down Sullivan. Congressman Don Young has been in his seat for decades and seemingly angers more constituents each year with his intemperate mouth. Even Trump's popularity has fallen below 50% in Alaska. This election in the state has all of the makings of a perfect storm. Political aficionados should not be surprised as the experts who rate races begin to look more closely at this race that is flying under the radar. There may not be another poll between now and the election, but Al Gross is very much in the thick of things.
