A batch of new polls and a key recruitment have begun to give Democrats hope that the Senate will be in play in 2020. Combined with the prospect of Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, Democrats are beginning to believe that the days of Mitch McConnell as the grim reaper are nearing an end. Given the importance of the Senate and the amount of damage that the Republicans have been able to inflict since they seized control of the chamber in 2014, Democrats should be equally as focused on the Senate races as they are on the presidency. While commentators have noted that the Democrats face a difficult path to seizing the Senate, they are ignoring the realities on the ground.

Democrats begin the 2020 cycle with control of 47 seats in the Senate. Even assuming that the party can end the nightmare known as the Trump Administration, they will still need to flip three seats to get to the magic number of fifty. If Trump somehow wins reelection, the calculus becomes even more difficult.

Steve Bullock Prepares to Run in Montana

However, help is on the way for the Democratic Party. One of the key recruits who had long been shunning the advances of party leaders has now indicated that he will run for office. Governor Steve Bullock of Montana had previously indicated that he was not interested in running for Senate despite constant entreaties from the party. Now, Chuck Schumer and President Obama have persuaded Bullock to run.

Montana presents a unique pickup opportunity for the Democrats. Even though the state broke heavily for Trump, it also has a long history of supporting people over party. Montana has voted for two Democrats for governor in a row and also reelected Jon Tester to the Senate in 2018. Bullock has a strong brand in the state, and the race would start as toss-up. This is a key change and opens up a new front for the Democrats.

Other Polls Break the Democrats' Way

The Democrats also received great news from a series of polls that were released on March 5. These pills show Democratic candidates leading in four key races. For the first time, there was a poll that showed Susan Collins trailing in her race for reelection. Incumbents in Colorado, Arizona and North Carolina also trail in the polls. Even if Doug Jones loses his race, these are enough seats to flip the Senate if Trump loses.

Bear in mind that these are just the four seats that are considered the closest in the 2020 elections. There are numerous other seats that can change hands if Trump has a bad day and voters show up to the polls in droves to send him back home, whichever state that is these days. Several other Senators are not polling well and could be vulnerable in a wave election. Chief among these is the holy grail of knocking off McConnell himself.

While much of the focus is on the top of the ticket, the Senate would control whether a new Democratic president could implement their agenda. Since McConnell has broken the Senate, it is unlikely in the future that a president will ever be able to have a judge confirmed if their party does not control the Senate.

In addition, while a traditionalist like Joe Biden would hesitate to do so, it is only a matter of time until there is an effort to change Senate rules to eliminate the filibuster. To do so, the Democrats will need a majority, accounting for the fact that senators such as Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema may vote against the rule change.

All of this means that the rank-and-file and party donors must not lose sight of the Senate map. While some say that the map benefits Trump because only two Republican senators are up for reelection in states won by Clinton, many of the states with Senate elections would be considered swing states that are in play. States such as North Carolina have a history of electing Democrats and even voted for Obama in 2008. Therefore, the playing field is rife with pickup opportunities. Even though most experts discount the possibility, the Democrats would have to be viewed as favorites to pick up at least three seats in the coming election. If anything, the early coalescing behind Biden cements the prospect.