Do Not Give Up Hope on the Senate; Georgia Is In Play

Jacob Greene
Published Sep 22, 2024



Democrats everywhere are finally exhaling after the apparent nightmare of a second Trump term faded. Now that Joe Biden appears to be the next President of the United States, people are wondering exactly what just happened. Democrats cannot pretend to be happy after a seeming blowout in the making turned out to be a nail biter. Now, a President Biden might be constrained by what could be a Republican-led Senate. As a result, if Democrats gave heavily before to their Senate candidates, they should be flooding the zone for Raphael Warncok and Jon Ossoff. These two runoff elections could determine the fate of Obamacare.

Ossoff and Warnock Will Live to Fight On


As of this writing, it looks like both Georgia Senate races are heading to runoff elections. Ossoff appears to have enough votes to drag David Perdue under 50% in the count. This is where Georgia's antiquated laws meant for nefarious racial purposes actually end up helping the Democrats. Never will the stakes be clearer for the Democrats. Win both of these seats and Joe Biden can nominate judges and cabinet members. Lose one of the two races, and the Democrats are stuck with at least another two years of Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader. Democratic voters know what to do here. They need to put their disappointment aside and dig into their wallets one more time for the two most crucial Senate elections in history.

There is some good news for Democrats here. In these two races, they do not have to campaign against President Trump, assuming that he ends up losing the presidential election. For four years, Democrats thought Trump was an easy mark to campaign against. They though that his grotesque character and horrific policies would cause voters to reject him en masse. The 2020 election proved that Trump has a large part of the country under his hypnotic spell with no sign of its loosening.

With Trump out of the way and much of the country disgusted with his attempt to steal the election, he may be better off staying outside of Georgia and away from this race. This is if he even wants to get involved here. He might choose to lick his wounds and stay out of the race, worried about his own future legal problems.

This Race Should Be Squarely About Moscow Mitch


This means that the Democrats can run the race that they have always wanted to run. They can pin this election on Mitch McConnell and make him the human bogeyman. Tying candidates to Trump does not seem like it worked in the past. Now, the Democrats can and should focus on Moscow Mitch. Specifically, they need to make this a referendum on Obamacare. This policy has proven to be enduringly popular.

Obamacare is in grave danger as the Supreme Court will strike it down this spring. It would be Trump's last laugh at the man whom he could never equal. However, Congress does have it in their power to pass an easy legislative fix that could moot the Supreme Court lawsuit. This would never happen with McConnell as the majority leader. McConnell may be a much easier person to run against than Trump. He is simply reviled by much of the American public. Given the fact that Biden seems ready to flip Georgia, there is an opening to sweep both of these seats.

The pattern in this past election was that Democrats simply cannot win Senate races in Red States. However, Biden seems to have completed the turning of Georgia into a Purple State, giving the Democrats a solid chance to win these races. They could bring Biden and Kamala Harris down to the state while Trump may sit on the sidelines. However, the Democrats need to start turning their attention to these runoffs now and not wait until after the battle for the presidency is resolved.

The next two months will see Georgia as the center of the political universe. Pastor Warnock may spark huge Black turnout. Without Trump at the top of the ticket, straight party line voters will not be tied to the Republican line. While Democrats have largely given up their hopes of retaking the Senate, their dreams are very much alive. They would start around a 40% chance, and the chances could rise if these candidates get the hundreds of millions of dollars in donations that they need.

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