As the election approaches, Democrats find themselves in a tough spot when it comes to a second stimulus package for COVID-19. For Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, the issue becomes how much to give to the White House in compromise negotiations. So far, they have played the issue well, and the pressure is on Mitch McConnell. Now, it is the wily and ruthless Kentuckian who is the one stuck in a box. The hope is that Pelosi will roll a desperate White House and put the onus on McConnell to be the one who says no.

McConnell Would Kill the Stimulus to Regain His Own Power

We may say a lot of things about McConnell. However, the phrase "odious human being" does not necessarily mean dumb. Moscow Mitch realizes that the game is up for Donald Trump. McConnell may be callous and calculating, but he can read the political tea leaves as well as anyone around. What he sees is that the polling for the President is abysmal and getting worse. Assuming he wins his race against the disappointing Amy McGrath, McConnell will return to the Senate in January as the Minority Leader if the current polls hold true.

McConnell's tactic is that he is trying to set the stage for a rebranding of the Republican Party after the Orange Tide recedes. He realizes that the so-called fiscally responsible Republicans of the early part of the last decade fared well at the ballot box. He understands that the Republicans will be in the Senate minority and facing a tough map in 2022. Opposing the stimulus package is a way to try to rebuild his bona fides after he blew the budget deficit to give money away to billionaires and corporations.

To her credit, Pelosi is willing to compromise in the name of getting money into the hands of the American public that critically needs it. Her political genius was in getting a massive bill approved by the House. Now, she gets credit for coming down off of her number in the name of bipartisanship. She can say that she is accepting over $1 trillion less than the initial House bill. Where Pelosi has showed true statespersonship is in continuing to work with an erratic and unpredictable White House through the process. She knows that she can get a much bigger bill through if she waits until January, but she also knows that the American public cannot hold out that long. Thus, she is willing to get something through now.

Blocking a Stimulus Would End Republican Careers on November 3

Unfortunately, the best-case electoral scenario for the Democrats would extract considerable pain for American households. It seems as if McConnell knows that he is going to lose his job as Majority Leader. His caucus would be torpedoing a lifeline to the American public. Any Republican Senator involved in a close race who voted against the bill would be signing their political death warrant. This is why Pelosi should bend over backwards to reach a final agreement with Steve Mnuchin. The White House is desperate for something to try to shake up the presidential race, since Trump is putting his own political fortunes above everyone else.

The most likely scenario is that Pelosi and Mnuchin reach some sort of agreement, and then McConnell does not act on the bill before Election Day. He then kills it in the lame duck session since he has no motivation to help anyone at that point. However, McConnell's calculations will likely backfire on him. He has 22 Republicans up for reelection in 2022, including at least six members in competitive races. If he has miscalculated, he may never gain control of the Senate again in his lifetime.

A stimulus bill would likely be the reason why the Democrats go nuclear and get rid of the legislative filibuster. McConnell is better off compromising now and hoping that the Democrats do not go nuclear in the first days of a Biden Administration. However, for Moscow Mitch, power matters more than the struggles of American households that cannot put food on the table. He has made it painfully clear that ramming through another extremist judge matters more than Americans waiting on food lines or about to lose their home. Pelosi should strike a deal with Mnuchin for many reasons, but one of the most satisfying would see McConnell twisting in the wind.