RBG's Death Will Give the Senate to the Democrats

Michael Bordonada
Published Jul 27, 2024


The passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is terrible news on many levels. Beyond the human sadness of losing such as icon, Mitch McConnell has taken upon himself to destroy American democracy by ramming through her replacement right before the election in a violation of his own rules. However, if RBG had to go, she went at the exact right time to make a difference in the election. There are already signs that Democratic voters are mobilizing in unprecedented numbers, and it will lead to a landslide in November.

Taking Back the White House Alone Would Be an Empty Victory


Of course, getting Donald Trump out of office in November is priority one if American democracy is to survive. Otherwise, we will go the way of numerous other banana republics under the sway of a strongman. However, one must also remember that the Senate elections are almost equally important. Joe Biden as president with McConnell still serving as the Grim Reaper will represent only partial progress. The entire Biden agenda would end up in the same place as every bill that Nancy Pelosi ended up; stuck on McConnell's desk. Thus, winning back the Senate is every bit as crucial. This is where the confirmation farce will make a large impact.

In the hours after RBG's passing, the fundraising platform Act Blue registered a tidal wave of contributions. These not only went to Biden, but tens of millions of dollars when to downballot races. Senate contenders such as Al Gross received money that will allow them to saturate the airwaves in their market between now and the election. It goes without saying that money will rain down from the heavens on races like North Carolina, Arizona and Colorado. Of course, donors will take special delight in writing checks to Jaime Harrison, who has Lindsey Graham scared for his political life right now.

Where the Senate races become even more important is that winning the Senate is not nearly enough. Chuck Schumer will be afraid for his own future with a possible primary challenge from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in 2022. Schumer will be ready to play hardball to avenge McConnell's willingness to break every last norm and rule. Even if the Democrats are not ready to go there on court packing, they should be ready to end the filibuster. Without it, Biden will not be able to pass anything.

The Democrats Need a Gain of Five Seats to Make Real Change


This is where the groundswell caused by RBG's passing comes into play. The Democrats need to have the votes to end the filibuster. They can count on Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema to oppose this attempt. The Democrats would need to have at least 52 senators to compensate for the two that may vote no. This means that they would need a net pickup of at least five seats.

Seizing control of the Senate is more likely than not, but it needs to happen with some authority. This means that races like Iowa and Georgia will need to break the Democrats' way. Theresa Greenfield has seen a bump in the polls in recent days, and Iowa is a place where the GOP is in danger. Greenfield just raised a ton of money from small donors who want to send Joni Ernst back to the farm.

Trump has essentially asked senators like Thom Tillis, Martha McSally and Cory Gardner to sign their own political death warrants for the sake of another justice on the bench. This will work out for the Democrats in the long term. If the Democrats do not have the numbers in the Senate to take out the filibuster in 2021, they will certainly get them in 2023 after the arch-conservative Supreme Court strips away Roe v. Wade and Obamacare. This will usher in an era of Democratic dominance for the foreseeable future.

RBG's death has given yet another impetus to the forces of change that are on the way. Combined with the demographic shift that is already underway, and the Democrats will be setting the agenda in Washington for years to come. Beyond that, Democrats will also be energized at the state level for elections that will determine who controls the redistricting process the next time around.

RBG's death leaves a huge hole and took from us a hero. However, if she had to die before an election, she picked the exact right time.

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